Will I Gain Weight If I Eat My TDEE?
Here is what maintenance calories really means, and how to adjust if the scale trends upward.
Last updated: January 2026
If you’re eating “at maintenance” but the scale looks noisy, it’s easy to wonder if your TDEE is wrong. The key is separating short-term fluctuations from a true upward trend.
Eating at TDEE should maintain weight, not cause steady gain
In theory, eating around your calculated TDEE should keep your weight relatively stable over time. That’s what “maintenance calories” means: calories in roughly matches calories out.
So if you eat your TDEE and gain weight immediately, it usually is not fat gain overnight. It is almost always normal daily variability.
Why weight can go up even when you’re at maintenance
Your scale weight can jump around for reasons that have nothing to do with body fat. Common causes include:
- Water retention: higher sodium or more carbs can temporarily increase stored water.
- Hormonal shifts: especially around menstrual cycles, stress, or poor sleep.
- Training soreness: inflammation and muscle repair can hold water for several days.
- Food volume: more food in your digestive system can raise scale weight without changing fat.
This is why it’s better to judge your direction using weekly averages rather than single weigh-ins.
The practical test: look for a multi-week upward trend
If your weekly average weight is trending up consistently over 2–3 weeks, you’re probably eating a bit above your true maintenance. That can happen for two main reasons:
- Your true TDEE is lower than the calculator estimate (real-world movement differs from the activity selection).
- Your intake is underestimated (portion sizes, oils, snacks, drinks, “small bites,” restaurant meals).
What to do if you’re gaining at “maintenance”
If the trend is clearly upward, you don’t need a big change. Small adjustments usually work best:
Drop intake by about 5–10%. This is often enough to bring you back to true maintenance without feeling like a diet.
Add a bit more walking or activity (for example, a modest step increase) and reassess after 2–3 weeks.
Make one small change, keep everything consistent, and evaluate using weekly averages after two to three weeks. That’s long enough to see signal instead of noise.
Eating at your TDEE should maintain weight over time. If you are seeing a steady upward trend in weekly averages, your real maintenance is probably lower, or your tracking is undercounting. In that case, adjust by 5-10% and reassess.